Republican candidate Matt Van Epps speaks to supporters at a watch party after announcing victory in a special election for the U.S. seventh congressional district in Nashville, Tennessee, on December 2, 2025. John Amis/AP

Republicans avoided disaster on Tuesday night by winning a special election in a solidly red Tennessee congressional district.

But the single-digit race there is merely the latest in an unambiguously troubling series of recent election results for President Donald Trump’s party 11 months before the 2026 midterm elections.

Republican Rep.-elect Matt Van Epps led Democrat Aftyn Behn by about nine points with 95% of the vote counted.

That’s in a district that Trump carried by 22 points and former GOP Rep. Mark Green won by more than 21 points last year.

That means

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