President Donald Trump arrives for a rally to kick off the July Fourth holiday weekend at the Iowa State Fairgrounds on July 03, in Des Moines, Iowa. Scott Olson/Getty Images

No politician in modern history has held as much sway over his base as President Donald Trump . And perhaps nothing has mattered more to his political career than that.

Whenever Trump’s been down – such as after the January 6, 2021, Capitol riot or after he was indicted four times – he’s been able to count on his base to keep him relevant and in the game. Republicans’ fear of crossing Trump is perhaps the animating principle in the party, and it’s allowed him to plow through any number of controversies that would have sunk pretty much any other politician.

But more than ever, that’s starting to change. We’ve se

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