Kansas City Chiefs wide receiver Rashee Rice (4) runs with the ball past Dallas Cowboys safety Malik Hooker (28) during the first quarter at AT&T Stadium in Arlington, Texas on Nov. 27, 2025.

The Kansas City Chiefs and Houston Texans are both on the outside looking in for the AFC playoff picture entering Week 14.

The winner of their "Sunday Night Football" matchup will find themselves drawing closer to postseason contention, while the loser will find themselves scrambling to make up ground over the final month of the NFL season.

The Chiefs (6-6) are in the midst of a cold stretch during which they have lost three of four games to the Buffalo Bills, Denver Broncos and Dallas Cowboys. Andy Reid's squad is highly unlikely to win a 10th consecutive AFC West title – they enter Week 14 four games behind the Broncos in the division standings with a head-to-head loss against them – and have a 1-6 record in one-score games.

Meanwhile, the Texans (7-5) have been hot of late, winning four consecutive games despite navigating an injury to C.J. Stroud while also watching their defense emerge as one of the league's best units. Houston still has a shot to get back in the AFC South race and could move itself into second place with a victory over the Chiefs.

Kansas City and Houston will both be playing with a sense of desperation, knowing a loss will significantly reduce their playoff chances.

With that in mind, here's a look at the best bets for Week 14 "Sunday Night Football" in what should be an exciting AFC clash.

Chiefs vs. Texans best bets

All odds are via BetMGM as of Sunday.

Houston Texans (+3.5, -118) at Kansas City Chiefs

Fading Patrick Mahomes and an improving Kansas City offense may not feel quite right, but the Chiefs have a difficult matchup against an elite-level Texans defense.

Houston ranks No. 1 in the NFL in defensive EPA per play, per the NFL's Next Gen Stats, and their 34 total sacks (2.8 per game) are tied for the sixth-most in the league. DeMeco Ryans' stop unit is uniquely positioned to limit Rashee Rice, Xavier Worthy and Travis Kelce with their fourth-ranked passing defense (174 yards per game allowed), so that will make life difficult on Mahomes.

Another exacerbating factor? Kansas City's offensive line is banged up. Left tackle Josh Simmons was placed on IR ahead of the game while right guard Trey Smith and right tackle Jawaan Taylor are also nursing injuries. If all three are out, the Chiefs are going to have a devil of a time protecting Mahomes against a strong, Will Anderson and Danielle Hunter-led Houston pass rush.

Add in that the Texans have yet to lose a game by more than one possession this season, and taking the points with Houston seems like the right move in what could be a close battle down the stretch.

UNDER 41.5 points scored (-110)

If Houston can limit Kansas City's offense as expected, this figures to be a grind-it-out game. The Texans rank just 21st in points per game this season (21.9) while the Chiefs have allowed just 20.5 points per game, fifth-fewest in the NFL.

Add in that Houston has only once allowed an opponent to exceed 18 points in its last six games and this profiles as a low-scoring defensive battle.

Patrick Mahomes OVER 0.5 interceptions (-105)

Again, fading Mahomes isn't for the faint of heart, but this is a tough matchup for the veteran quarterback. The Texans have generated 11 interceptions thus far in 2025 – tied for the seventh-most in the NFL entering Week 14 – and have forced at least one interception in eight of their last 10 games.

Meanwhile, Mahomes avoided throwing a pick on Thanksgiving against the Dallas Cowboys but had a streak of four consecutive games with an interception before that. The 30-year-old quarterback will likely need to take some downfield chances into coverage against a defense that ranks No. 1 in defensive EPA per play against the pass; that may allow the Texans to force the two-time MVP into his eighth interception of the season.

Rashee Rice anytime TD scorer (+125)

Touchdowns figure to be at a premium in this game, but Rice is as good a bet as any to score one.

It's not necessarily because Rice has a matchup advantage in this one. In fact, the Texans have allowed just seven receiving touchdowns to wide receivers this season, tied for the fifth-fewest in the NFL.

That said, Rice has been far and away Mahomes' favorite red-zone target this season. The third-year pro is tied for the sixth-most red-zone targets on the season (17) despite missing the first six games of the 2025 NFL season, dealing with a suspension. So long as Rice continues to get that volume, he will be a big-time threat to find the end zone, as he has in three of the six games he has played this season.

This article originally appeared on USA TODAY: Chiefs vs. Texans best bets, player props, TD scorers for 'Sunday Night Football'

Reporting by Jacob Camenker, USA TODAY / USA TODAY

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