In the coming days, the Israeli government is expected to ratify the largest export agreement in its history: a $35 billion expansion of natural-gas supplies to Egypt from the Leviathan reservoir. Framed by proponents in Israel and the United States as a masterstroke of regional integration, the deal is predicated on a neoliberal theory of “instrumental interdependence”—the belief that binding Cairo’s economic survival to Israeli resources will purchase stability on the southern border.

However, an analysis of the current geopolitical landscape suggests this policy is decoupled from reality. While the Israeli Ministry of Energy finalizes pipelines, the Ministry of Defense is grappling with a security vacuum in the Sinai that has allowed nearly 900 drone infiltration incidents in just thre

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