Tampa Bay Lightning defenseman Darren Raddysh (43) celebrates with teammates, including forward Nikita Kucherov (86), defenseman Max Crozier (24) and forward Anthony Cirelli (71), after scoring a goal at the Bell Centre in Montreal, Quebec.

The Tampa Bay Lightning (18-11-2) and New York Islanders (18-11-3) meet Saturday at UBS Arena in Elmont, New York. Puck drop is scheduled for 3:30 p.m. ET (ESPN+). Let's analyze BetMGM Sportsbook's NHL odds around the Lightning vs. Islanders and make our expert NHL picks and predictions.

Season series: Islanders lead 2-0

The Lightning rolled to an 8-4 win in New Jersey last time out Thursday, cashing as moderate favorites (-140) with the Over (5.5) hitting. G Jonas Johansson stopped 33 of 37 shots, while RW Oliver Bjorkstrand led the way with 2 goals and 3 points. RW Nikita Kucherov was good for 4 assists, and C Jake Guentzel chipped in with a goal and 3 points.

The Lightning were shut out 2-0 in consecutive games Dec. 6-8, including a setback at home against the Islanders. However, Tampa Bay has erupted for 14 goals in 2 wins since. G Andrei Vasilevskiy remains sidelined due to an undisclosed injury, and D Victor Hedman (elbow) is out with an elbow issue.

The Islanders posted a 5-2 win over the Anaheim Ducks as light favorites (-120) as the Over (6.5) cashed. LW Anders Lee notched 2 goals and 2 assists in the victory. New York is 5-1-0 in the past 6 games, while the Over has a slight 3-2 edge in the previous 5 outings.

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Lightning at Islanders odds

Provided by BetMGM Sportsbook; access USA TODAY Sports Scores and Sports Betting Odds hub for a full list. Lines last updated at 11:44 a.m. ET.

  • Moneyline (ML): Lightning -125 (bet $125 to win $100) | Islanders +105 (bet $100 to win $105)
  • Puck line (PL)/Against the spread (ATS): Lightning -1.5 (+185) | Islanders +1.5 (-225)
  • Over/Under (O/U): 6 (O: +100 | U: -120)

Lightning at Islanders projected goalies

Jonas Johansson (7-5-0, 2.65 GAA, .905 SV%) vs. Ilya Sorokin (11-8-2, 2.53 GAA, .910 SV%, 3 SO)

Johansson has done a decent job in place of the injured Vasilevskiy, going 2-3-0 with a 2.26 GAA and .920 SV% in 5 starts in December. He has allowed just a single goal in 3 of his past 4 starts, but he has 2 losses because the team provided zero goals of offensive support.

Sorokin has been on fire in December, going 4-0-0 with a 1.96 GAA and .942 SV% with a shutout. He allowed 4 goals on 37 shots in a 5-4 shootout victory over the visiting Golden Knights Tuesday. He allowed a goal on 31 shots in a 2-1 victory over the Lightning on Dec. 2.

Lightning at Islanders picks and predictions

Prediction

Islanders 3, Lightning 2

Moneyline

ISLANDERS (+105) are a solid play as home underdogs against the Lightning.

We have 2 teams playing very good hockey lately, so something's gotta give. This is the third meeting in December, and New York has scratched out 2 low-scoring wins, both in Elmont and in Tampa. The Isles just seem to have the number of the Lightning.

Puck line/Against the spread

New York +1.5 (-225) is just too expensive, if you cannot take it straight up, and need some insurance.

Even as part of a multi-leg parlay, it isn't a good value playing the Islanders. If you like the Isles, just take them straight up.

AVOID.

Over/Under

BACK UNDER 6 (-120).

This might be the best play on the board, given the way Johansson -- and especially Sorokin -- have been playing in December.

These teams have met twice since Dec. 2, with a total of just 5 goals scored, or 2.5 goals per game, so what's going to change, where all of a sudden we get fire-wagon hockey?

For more sports betting picks and tips, check out SportsbookWire.com and BetFTW.

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This article originally appeared on Sportsbook Wire: Tampa Bay Lightning at New York Islanders odds, picks and predictions

Reporting by Daniel Dobish, Sportsbook Wire / Sportsbook Wire

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