The Texas Capitol in Austin is lit on August 22, during a session in the State Senate, regarding a bill to redraw the state's congressional districts. Sergio Flores/Reuters/File

The Republican plans to pick off five Democratic-held congressional seats in Texas once seemed like a sure thing. Not anymore.

President Donald Trump’s flagging approval ratings, particularly among Latinos, and strong Democratic performance in this year’s special elections have changed both parties’ assumptions. Now, the cushion the Texas GOP drew into its new map – Trump won every Republican-favored district by 10 points or more a year ago – seems like it might be too small.

Democrats beat Trump’s 2024 results in five US House districts with special elections this year by at least 13 points. Over-performance

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