Projected path of Hurricane Erin Aug. 19, 2025.
Projected path of Hurricane Erin 5 a.m. Aug. 19, 2025.

Editor's note: Follow USA TODAY's updates about Hurricane Erin for Wednesday, Aug. 20.

Hurricane Erin has weakened slightly into a Category 2 hurricane but is forecast to "substantially grow in size" as it moves over the western Atlantic Ocean through the week, according to the National Hurricane Center.

According to a 2 p.m. ET advisory from the hurricane center on Aug. 19, Erin is located about 655 miles south-southeast of Cape Hatteras, North Carolina, with maximum sustained winds near 105 mph with higher gusts.

Hurricane center forecasters said Erin is moving toward the north-northwest and that this motion, with an increase in forward speed, is expected through Tuesday, Aug. 19 followed by a northward motion on Wednesday, Aug.2 0 and then a northeastward motion on Thursday.

On the forecast track, the center of Erin is expected to pass to the east of the Bahamas Tuesday, Aug. 19, and then move over the western Atlantic between the U.S. East Coast and Bermuda on Wednesday and Thursday. Erin's strength could still fluctuate before it finally begins to wind down later in the week, according to the center's forecast.

Big waves and rough surf are expected along the Atlantic Coast from Central Florida to Canada, with evacuations underway along at least two of the islands along North Carolina's Outer Banks ahead of an expected storm surge and waves of over 10 feet. Heavy rainfall is also possible on the Outer Banks Wednesday night into Thursday with potential for 1 to 2 inches and a local maximum of 4 inches.

The National Weather Service is urging people to stay out of the ocean to avoid deadly surf conditions expected through at least Thursday.

A storm surge watch is in effect from Cape Lookout to Duck, North Carolina, which means there is a possibility of life-threatening inundation, from rising water moving inland from the coastline, in the indicated locations during the next 48 hours. The NWS said storm surge in this area could reach 2 to 4 feet.

Hurricane Erin path tracker

This forecast track shows the most likely path of the center of the storm. It does not illustrate the full width of the storm or its impacts, and the center of the storm is likely to travel outside the cone up to 33% of the time.

Hurricane Erin spaghetti models

Illustrations include an array of forecast tools and models, and not all are created equal. The hurricane center uses only the top four or five highest-performing models to help make its forecasts.

National Hurricane Center tracking two other systems in the Atlantic

In addition to Erin, the hurricane center is also tracking two other systems in the Atlantic that could stir up some tropical weather.

The NHC said a tropical wave located over the central tropical Atlantic continues to produce a broad area of disorganized showers and thunderstorms. Environmental conditions appear conducive for gradual development of this system, and a tropical depression could form toward the end of the week or weekend.

Forecasters said this system should move westward to west-northwestward across the central tropical Atlantic and approach the vicinity of the Leeward Islands on Friday, Aug. 22, with the NHC giving it a 60% chance of formation through the next seven days.

A second tropical wave, located a few hundred miles to the southeast of the Cabo Verde Islands, continues to produce a concentrated area of showers and thunderstorms, according to hurricane center forecasters. Environmental conditions appear favorable for additional development over the next couple of days as the system moves westward.

However, toward the end of this week, the system could encounter a less favorable environment, limiting its chance for development after that time. The hurricane center gives the system a 30% chance of formation through the next seven days.

How do hurricanes form?

Hurricanes are born in the tropics, above warm water. Clusters of thunderstorms can develop over the ocean when water temperatures exceed 80 degrees. If conditions are right, the clusters swirl into a storm known as a tropical wave or tropical depression.

A tropical depression becomes a named tropical storm once its sustained wind speeds reach 39 mph. When its winds reach 74 mph, the storm officially becomes a hurricane.

Prepare now for hurricanes

Delaying potentially lifesaving preparations could mean waiting until it’s too late. "Get your disaster supplies while the shelves are still stocked, and get that insurance checkup early, as flood insurance requires a 30-day waiting period," the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration recommends.

  • Develop an evacuation plan. If you are at risk from hurricanes, you need an evacuation plan. Now is the time to begin planning where you would go and how you would get there.
  • Assemble disaster supplies. Whether you’re evacuating or sheltering in place, you’re going to need supplies not just to get through the storm but for a possibly lengthy aftermath, NOAA said.
  • Get an insurance checkup and document your possessions. Contact your insurance company or agent now and ask for an insurance checkup to make sure you have enough insurance to repair or even replace your home and belongings. Remember, home and renters insurance doesn’t cover flooding, so you’ll need a separate policy for it. Flood insurance is available through your company, agent or the National Flood Insurance Program. Act now, because flood insurance requires a 30-day waiting period.
  • Create a family communication plan. NOAA says you should take the time now to write down a hurricane plan and share it with your family. Determine family meeting places and make sure to include an out-of-town location in case of evacuation.
  • Strengthen your home. Now is the time to improve your home’s ability to withstand hurricanes. Trim trees; install storm shutters, accordion shutters, and impact glass; seal outside wall openings.

This story has been updated to include new information.

Gabe Hauari is a national trending news reporter at USA TODAY. You can follow him on X @GabeHauari or email him at Gdhauari@gannett.com.

This article originally appeared on USA TODAY: Hurricane Erin expected to 'substantially grow in size': See path tracker

Reporting by Gabe Hauari, USA TODAY / USA TODAY

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