The Gulf of Panama has experienced an annual wind-driven oceanographic phenomenon called upwelling for at least as long as records of it have existed. In 2025, however, seasonal upwelling failed, and the consequences could be drastic.

In a study published Tuesday in the journal PNAS, a Smithsonian Tropical Research Institute-led team suggests that weakening trade winds caused upwelling to fail in the Gulf of Panama this year for the first time in at least four decades. Consequently, the gulf’s waters did not experience the usual lowered temperatures, and fisheries were less productive.

A vital marine process

Upwelling sees cold, nutrient-rich water from deep in the ocean rise up and displace surface waters. In Central America, northern trade winds usually cause these crucial up

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