The stock market is in a precarious position; jobs growth has slowed sharply and valuations are well above historical averages.

The U.S. stock market has been unusually turbulent this year. The S&P 500 ( ^GSPC 0.21% ) dropped 10.5% in two days when President Trump announced his "Liberation Day" tariffs in early April, its fifth worst two-day decline in history. The index ultimately fell 19% from its record high as economists warned of catastrophic consequences.

However, the S&P 500 rebounded quickly after the president paused the most severe tariffs for 90 days, and kept climbing as companies reported better than expected earnings and economic data remained positive. The S&P 500 has advanced 30% since crashing in April.

Unfortunately, jobs data that initially suggested economic

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