As the peak of hurricane season approaches, meteorologists warn that activity in the Atlantic Basin could soon increase. Although the tropics have been relatively quiet, the climatological peak of the Atlantic hurricane season is September 10. Most hurricane activity typically occurs between mid-August and mid-October, according to the National Hurricane Center. Historically, about two-thirds of all activity happens between August 20 and October 10.

Currently, there are no tropical developments expected in the next week. "For the next seven days, things look pretty quiet," said David Zierden, Florida's state climatologist and head of the Florida Climate Center at Florida State University. However, forecasters predict that activity will pick up in the latter half of September as conditions become more conducive for tropical cyclone development.

NOAA’s Climate Prediction Center indicates a rising likelihood of tropical development over the central Atlantic Ocean later in September. This is due to large-scale environmental conditions gradually becoming more favorable for tropical cyclone activity. Experts from Colorado State University support this outlook, noting that changes in atmospheric conditions, including wind patterns, will likely lead to increased storm activity.

Jennifer Francis, an atmospheric scientist at the Woodwell Climate Research Center, stated that by mid-September, the upper atmosphere and wind shear should become more favorable for storm formation and strengthening. Last month, NOAA forecasted above-normal activity for the remainder of the hurricane season, predicting 13 to 18 named storms with winds of 39 mph or greater. This includes five to nine storms expected to become hurricanes and two to five major hurricanes with winds of 111 mph or higher.

So far this season, there have been six named storms, with only one developing into a major hurricane. Hurricane Erin formed on August 11 and quickly intensified into a Category 5 storm. While it caused rough surf and dangerous rip currents in the northeastern Caribbean and along the East Coast, it remained offshore. Tropical Storm Chantal made landfall in South Carolina in early July. The next named storm will be Gabrielle.

The Atlantic hurricane season has been relatively calm due to unfavorable atmospheric conditions and dust from the Sahara Desert, which hinder tropical cyclone formation. September and October are typically the busiest months for hurricanes, as sea surface temperatures reach their peak. Zierden noted that higher temperatures provide "ample fuel" for the development and intensification of tropical cyclones. Currently, waters in the Gulf and Caribbean are described as "very warm," which could lead to significant storm activity when disturbances arise.

Historically, the two busiest Atlantic hurricane seasons on record—2020 and 2005—saw about half of the total named storms occur after September 3. Recent hurricane activity in 2024 illustrates how active late September and early October can be for tropical development. Hurricane Helene, which caused severe flooding in North Carolina, formed on September 24, 2024, while Hurricane Milton, which led to widespread destruction in Florida, formed on October 5, 2024.

During this time of year, tropical activity is more likely to develop in the Caribbean or Gulf rather than near Africa, complicating response efforts. Francis emphasized, "That gives people less time to prepare." As the season progresses, residents in vulnerable areas should remain vigilant and prepared for potential storms.