Hamas, the Palestinian militant group, initiated a series of attacks on Israel on October 7, 2023, which it described as the start of a religious war aimed at liberating Palestine. This operation, named "Al Aqsa Flood," has led to significant losses for Hamas, including the deaths of its senior leaders and the destruction of its military infrastructure in the Gaza Strip. Despite these setbacks, Hamas has retained some control over the region and continues to engage in hostilities against Israeli forces.

Erik Skare, a researcher at Oslo University, noted that while Hamas's political institutions have been severely weakened, the group still maintains a military presence. "There's nothing left of the political institutions that Hamas once ruled before the Gaza war," Skare said. He added that Hamas has been known to suppress dissent among the civilian population, using violence against protesters.

On Tuesday, Israel conducted an airstrike in Doha, Qatar, targeting Hamas leadership. Although Hamas claimed that its leaders survived the attack, five members were reported killed. This incident highlights the diminishing influence of the United States in Middle Eastern affairs, as Israel continues its campaign against Hamas leaders.

The Israeli military has previously targeted high-ranking Hamas officials, including the chairman of the Hamas political bureau in Tehran and the group's Gaza leader, Yahya Sinwar. The current military commander in Gaza, Izz al-Din al-Haddad, has warned that the battle for Gaza City could extend for months, indicating that Hamas is still mobilizing for conflict.

Dr. Skare explained that Hamas has shifted from a traditional military structure to operating through autonomous cells, which has resulted in a decrease in the number of attacks against Israeli forces. In October 2023, Hamas averaged 40 operations per week, but this number has since dropped to between 10 and 15. "One thing it could be that Hamas is, in fact, militarily weakened," Skare said, while also noting that the group is adapting to urban guerrilla warfare tactics.

The exact number of Hamas fighters remaining is unclear, but reports suggest that Israeli forces have killed approximately 8,900 members of Hamas and the Palestinian Islamic Jihad out of a total of 47,653 active members. Despite the losses, analysts believe that Hamas may still find ways to recruit from the discontented population in Gaza.

Historically, Hamas has shown resilience in the face of Israeli assassination campaigns. Mkhaimar Abusada, a former political science professor, stated that Hamas has successfully replaced senior leaders in the past, suggesting that the group could do so again.

Israeli commentators have raised concerns about the effectiveness of the assassination strategy, arguing that it complicates efforts to reach a political resolution. Some believe that targeting Hamas leadership in Qatar could inadvertently strengthen the group's influence in the West Bank, where it has traditionally been at a disadvantage.

The recent airstrike in Qatar may have implications for future negotiations. Amos Nadan, a Middle East expert, suggested that if key leaders were killed, Israel might claim victory and be more open to negotiations. However, many observers believe that this attack diminishes the likelihood of a ceasefire, as it complicates the process of negotiating a deal for the release of hostages held by Hamas.

Former U.S. negotiator Brett McGurk emphasized that reaching a deal requires engaging with Hamas leadership, both in Doha and Gaza. He warned that the strike could hinder efforts to secure a hostage agreement, as negotiations typically involve multiple layers of leadership within Hamas.