Updated at 9:15 a.m. ET on Thursday, Sept. 11, 2025

The Atlantic, Caribbean and Gulf are still quiet, but a disturbance forecast to move off Africa tomorrow has a chance of eventually developing. The National Hurricane Center is drawing a low-odds development area across a wide swath of the tropical belt.

Recall that "the odds of tropical development" are the chance that the system will become a tropical depression, which only means that the system has an organized circulation. It's a low bar.

A number of the various computer forecast models show the system eventually developing into a tropical storm or a hurricane. As is often the case, according to the computer forecasts, the stronger the storm gets, the more likely it is to turn north into the central Atlantic. The computer forecasts

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