The Toronto International Film Festival has a reputation — and not just for its red carpet looks .

To those in the know, especially for those with an Oscars betting pool, TIFF has a different feather in its cap. Ostensibly, its top prize — the attendee-voted People's Choice Award (PCA) — is among the most reliable predictors for best picture nominees at the Oscars. So much so that the festival itself prides itself as an "Oscars bellwether" on its own website .

But how earned is that reputation, really? Well, there's a reason studios and audiences should care about TIFF's PCA winner — not to mention the festival itself, whose very future might depend on its continued ability to pick Academy Awards contenders.

For Oscar-obsessives and TIFF tastemakers alike, we crunched the numbers:

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