The Federal Reserve's rate decision on Wednesday is shaping up to be its most consequential of the year, with most economists predicting the first cut of 2025. The real suspense is over how deep the reduction could be — and whether the Fed might signal a broader pivot that could set the course for the rest of the year.

So far, the Fed has resisted calls from President Trump to cut its benchmark interest rate, which helps determine borrowing costs for businesses and consumers. Mr. Trump has pointed to the fact that inflation has remained relatively muted , so far this year, as evidence the central bank has been too late in lowering borrowing costs.

Apart from Mr. Trump's push for a cut, the Federal Reserve is facing growing economic uncertainty ahead of its Sept. 17 meeting, raising

See Full Page