Tensions in Eastern Europe have escalated following a series of provocative military actions by Russia. Recently, a swarm of Russian drones entered Polish airspace, prompting NATO to enhance its air defenses along its eastern borders. This incident occurred amid long-planned military exercises in Belarus, where Russia showcased its conventional and nuclear capabilities, warning the West against deploying troops in Ukraine.

The drone incursion into Poland, which Russian officials denied was intentional, has been labeled a deliberate provocation by Polish Prime Minister Donald Tusk. He stated that such actions bring the region closer to open conflict, a sentiment echoed by NATO Secretary-General Mark Rutte. Rutte announced a new initiative called "Eastern Sentry" to bolster air defenses in response to the drone violations, which have also affected Romania, Estonia, Latvia, and Lithuania.

These developments come on the heels of Russia's ongoing war in Ukraine, which began with a full-scale invasion in February 2022. The recent military drills, named "Zapad 2025" or "West 2025," involve thousands of troops, combat vehicles, and nuclear-capable bombers. The exercises are seen as a simulation of a joint response to an enemy attack, including potential nuclear weapon use.

Putin's nuclear doctrine, revised last year, states that any conventional attack on Russia supported by a nuclear power will be treated as a joint attack. This policy aims to deter the West from allowing Ukraine to strike Russian territory with longer-range weapons. The doctrine also extends Russia's nuclear umbrella to Belarus, where battlefield nuclear weapons are reportedly deployed.

The Zapad 2025 exercises have raised alarms among NATO members, particularly those bordering Belarus. The drills are reminiscent of previous military maneuvers that preceded Russia's invasion of Ukraine. As part of the exercises, Russian state media released footage of nuclear-capable bombers conducting training missions, further heightening concerns in the region.

In addition to the military maneuvers, Russia has begun production of the Oreshnik missile, which is capable of carrying both conventional and nuclear warheads. Putin has claimed that the Oreshnik can reach targets in Poland and NATO headquarters in Brussels within minutes, raising the stakes for NATO's response.

Belarusian officials have made conflicting statements regarding control of the nuclear weapons stationed in their country. While Belarusian President Alexander Lukashenko initially claimed that Belarus would control the weapons, Russian military officials have emphasized that Moscow retains control. This ambiguity adds to the uncertainty surrounding the deployment of tactical nuclear weapons in Belarus, which could threaten NATO allies in Eastern and Central Europe.

As the situation continues to evolve, experts warn that the deployment of Russian nuclear weapons to Belarus could signal a return to Cold War-era tensions, with Belarus serving as a strategic base for Russian military operations in the region. The ongoing military activities and provocative actions by Russia underscore the fragile security landscape in Eastern Europe.