The International Energy Agency (IEA) has scaled back its forecast for renewable power growth to 2030, citing weaker outlooks in the United States and China.

The Paris-based agency now projects total renewable capacity will reach 4,600 gigawatts (GW) by 2030, down from 5,500GW in last year’s forecast, according to a report released on Tuesday.

This suggests that a global target of tripling renewable energy use by 2030 to combat climate change will fail.

The early phase-out of federal tax incentives for renewable energy in the US, laid out in President Donald Trump’s “One Big Beautiful Bill” , is a key driver of the lowered estimate.

Challenges in China, where the government is shifting from guaranteed electricity prices for renewable energy projects to competitive auctions that c

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