The National Hurricane Center's first official track forecast for Tropical Storm Jerry, the tenth-named storm of the 2025 hurricane season. The cone shows only the likely path of the center of the storm and not its full impacts, and the center of the storm could pass outside the cone.

Tropical Storm Jerry has formed in the Atlantic Ocean.

The National Hurricane Center said in an advisory on Tuesday, Oct. 7 the Atlantic hurricane season's 10th named storm was located about 1,315 miles east-southeast of the northern Leeward Islands. It has maximum sustained winds around 45 mph, but higher gusts could sweep through the area.

Forecasters warned of "steady strengthening," and Jerry is expected to become a hurricane within the next day or two. On the forecast track, Jerry is set to be near or to the north of the northern Leeward Islands late Thursday, Oct. 9 and Friday, Oct. 10.

Many of the ensemble models used to forecast a potential hurricane track show that the system eventually could move north into the Atlantic – as several other storms have done this season. But it's too soon to say for sure.

Even if it does whirl out into the Atlantic, Jerry could still send deadly and dangerous swells and hazardous surf and currents to the U.S. coast.

Hurricane center officials are also watching a disturbed area over the Bay of Campeche in the southwestern Gulf of Mexico. It has a minimal chance of formation, but it's forecast to bring heavy rains to portions of Belize, the Yucatan Peninsula and southern Mexico this week.

Atlantic storm tracker

This forecast track shows the most likely path of the center of the storm. It does not illustrate the full width of the storm or its impacts, and the center of the storm is likely to travel outside the cone up to 33% of the time.

Hurricane Priscilla could impact southern Baja California peninsula, forecasters say

In the Pacific, Hurricane Priscilla continues to strengthen and is expected to impact the southern Baja California Sur beginning Oct. 7 and the southwest United States later this week.

In an early morning advisory, hurricane center forecasters said Priscilla was located about 230 miles south of the southern tip of Baja California with maximum sustained winds near 100 mph with higher gusts.

Forecasters said and Priscilla could be at or near major hurricane on Tuesday, Oct. 7, with weakening expected to begin on Wednesday, Oct. 8 and continue throughout the week. The center of Priscilla is forecast to move parallel to – but offshore of – the coast of west-central Mexico and Baja California Sur in the next few days.

During that time, 1 to 2 inches of rain are expected in southern Baja California Sur, and local totals of up to 4 inches are possible. Forecasters also said moisture from Priscilla should bring heavy rainfall potential over the southwest United States late this week into the weekend.

Swells spurred by Priscilla have started hitting the coast of southwestern and west-central Mexico, as well as portions of the coast of the southern Baja California peninsula, forecasters said. These swells are likely to cause "life-threatening surf and rip current conditions," according to the hurricane center.

Prepare now for hurricanes

Delaying potentially lifesaving preparations could mean waiting until it’s too late. "Get your disaster supplies while the shelves are still stocked, and get that insurance checkup early, as flood insurance requires a 30-day waiting period," the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration recommends.

  • Develop an evacuation plan. If you are at risk from hurricanes, you need an evacuation plan. Now is the time to begin planning where you would go and how you would get there.
  • Assemble disaster supplies. Whether you’re evacuating or sheltering in place, you’re going to need supplies not just to get through the storm but for a possibly lengthy aftermath, NOAA said.
  • Get an insurance checkup and document your possessions. Contact your insurance company or agent now and ask for an insurance checkup to make sure you have enough insurance to repair or even replace your home and belongings. Remember, home and renters insurance don’t cover flooding, so you’ll need a separate policy for those. Flood insurance is available through your company, agent or the National Flood Insurance Program.
  • Create a family communication plan. NOAA says you should take the time now to write down a hurricane plan and share it with your family. Determine family meeting places and make sure to include an out-of-town location in case of evacuation.
  • Strengthen your home. Now is the time to improve your home’s ability to withstand hurricanes. Trim trees and install storm shutters, accordion shutters, and impact glass, and seal outside wall openings.

Gabe Hauari is a national trending news reporter at USA TODAY. You can follow him on X @GabeHauari or email him at Gdhauari@gannett.com.

This article originally appeared on USA TODAY: Tropical Storm Jerry forms in the Atlantic. See its potential path.

Reporting by Gabe Hauari and Dinah Voyles Pulver, USA TODAY / USA TODAY

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