When it comes to this year's Nobel Peace Prize, one thing is almost certain: US President Donald Trump will not win, no matter how much he wants it. But who will?

The Norwegian Nobel Committee in Oslo will bring the suspense to an end when it announces the winner Friday at 11:00 am (0900 GMT).

The backdrop is bleak: the number of armed conflicts worldwide involving at least one state has never been as high as in 2024, since Sweden's Uppsala University started its global conflict database in 1946.

Trump has repeatedly said he deserves the prestigious prize for resolving "eight conflicts", but experts predict he will not be the committee's choice -- at least not this year.

"No, it will not be Trump this year," Swedish professor Peter Wallensteen, an expert on international affairs, told

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