Montel Jackson (red gloves) fights Daniel Marcos (blue gloves) during UFC Fight Night at Wells Fargo Arena in Des Moines, Iowa.

In a 3-round bantamweight bout on the main card, Deiveson Figueiredo and Montel Jackson meet Saturday at UFC Fight Night 261 -- also known as UFC on ESPN+ 119 -- at Farmasi Arena in Rio de Janeiro. The prelims begin at 4 p.m. ET, followed by the main card at 7 p.m. ET (both on ESPN+). Let's analyze BetMGM Sportsbook's UFC odds around the UFC Fight Night 261: Figueiredo vs. Jackson odds, and make our expert UFC picks and predictions.

Records: Figueiredo (24-5-1) | Jackson (15-2-0)

Figueiredo heads into this matchup with a huge disadvantage, as Jackson holds a 7-inch reach advantage. The 33-year-old American fighter has a 3.22 significant strikes landed per minute to 2.82 for Figueiredo. He is also much more accurate at 63.03%, while the Brazilian fighter has a 58.58% mark. Jackson has a 3.24-to-1.69 takedown average and is much more accurate in that category at 62.79%, compared to Figueiredo’s 35.06%.

Figueiredo has dropped his past 2 fights, losing to Petr Yan by unanimous decision in a main event in November 2024 and getting knocked out in Round 2 by Cory Sandhagen in May. He has ended up going the distance in 2 of his past 3 fights.

Jackson enters on a 6-fight win streak, posting three Round 1 KO/TKOs and 3 unanimous-decision victories, including a win over Daniel Marcos in May. However, this marks a giant step up in competition. He has ended up going the distance in 6 of his past 9 fights since April 2019.

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UFC Fight Night 261: Figueiredo vs. Jackson odds

Provided by BetMGM Sportsbook; access USA TODAY Sports Scores and Sports Betting Odds hub for a full list. Lines last updated at 10:30 a.m. ET.

  • Fight result (2-way line): Figueiredo +260 (bet $100 to win $260) | Jackson -325 (bet $325 to win $100)
  • Total rounds: 2.5 rounds (Over -190 | Under +145)
  • Will the fight go the distance? (Yes -150 | No +110)

UFC Fight Night 261: Figueiredo vs. Jackson picks and predictions

Fight result (2-way line or moneyline)

Jackson (-325) will cost you more than 3 times your potential return, and that's way too much risk for not much reward.

The better bet is to choose a method of victory with the heavy favorite, going with JACKSON BY DECISION/TECHNICAL DECISION (+100) at even money. He knows how to wow the judges, and the biggest concern is the potential knockout. He has a big punch and the ability to knock fighters out early. However, since this just a 3-round fight, not 5 rounds, the decision is more likely.

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Over/Under

YES (-150): FIGHT TO GO THE DISTANCE is a little pricey, but it’s worth a look if you want some action on the fight yet don’t trust Jackson or simply don’t want to declare a winner.

However, Over 2.5 Rounds (-190) will cost you nearly twice your potential return, and there isn't a ton of wiggle room. Avoid the Total Rounds O/U bet.

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This article originally appeared on Sportsbook Wire: UFC Fight Night 261: Deiveson Figueiredo vs. Montel Jackson odds, picks and predictions

Reporting by Daniel Dobish, Sportsbook Wire / Sportsbook Wire

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