UPDATED Tuesday at 9 a.m. ET.

The tropical disturbance that moved off Africa over the weekend is slowly tracking west across the tropical Atlantic. It's quite far south and east for a system this time of year, although occasionally these systems occur.

The consensus of the various computer forecasts is that the disturbance will track toward the Caribbean, arriving near the islands next Sunday or Monday. There is no indication in any of the models that the system would be strong at that time, but of course, it will bear watching. The current forecasts show a moisture surge moving into the southeast Caribbean across the Windward Islands.

The longer-range projections generally keep the system in the Caribbean through next week, if it survives that far. The Caribbean waters are extremely wa

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