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When prices are high and global conflicts destabilize the world, some investors start looking backwards—away from an uncertain future and toward the predictability of the past. And what’s older and more dependable than gold?

Last week, amid widespread geopolitical turmoil and a weakening U.S. dollar, the price of gold hit a historic high of $4,000 an ounce. This year has so far been gold’s best since 1979, a moment of instability so profound that it led to recession. Gold prices are much closer to a genuine “recession indicator” than, say, the resurgence of frozen yogurt or an uptick in Uber E

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