The US economy is navigating a period of significant uncertainty, with the Federal Reserve expected to deliver two more interest rate cuts this year despite disruptions in data collection caused by the government shutdown, according to James Knightley, Chief International Economist at ING.

“I think there is still enough evidence out there, even with the government shut down… to trigger another rate cut in October and we think also another rate cut in December as well,” Knightley said. He added that while the market, economists, and the Fed appear aligned on two cuts this year, expectations for next year remain divided.

According to the CME FedWatch Tool, the next US Federal Reserve meeting is scheduled for October 29, 2025. Markets are pricing in a 95.7% chance of a rate cut to 3.75–4.00

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