Last updated on Oct. 17 at 9 a.m.

The tropical disturbance we've been following is finally within the National Hurricane Center 's seven-day window, so they're now drawing a big lemon in the Caribbean where the system has a chance of developing.

The long line from the disturbance's current location in the central Tropical Atlantic to the eastern Caribbean is an indication that development is not expected before the system gets to the vicinity of the islands. On the current schedule, the disturbance is forecast to move into the southeastern Caribbean–over the Windward Islands–Sunday or Monday.

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The NHC has the odds of at least a tropical depression forming by next Friday in the low range. The consensus of the various computer forecasts is that there's a mediu

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