US President Donald Trump has stated that India will stop buying oil from Russia, claiming that Prime Minister Narendra Modi assured him of this during a recent conversation. However, the Indian Ministry of External Affairs has denied any knowledge of such a discussion. The issue of Russian oil imports has become a significant point of contention in India-US relations, especially as India currently faces high tariffs on its exports to the US, including a 25% penalty on Russian crude imports.

India relies heavily on Russian oil, which accounts for over one-third of the crude processed in its refineries. In September, India imported approximately 4.7 million barrels of crude oil per day, with Russia supplying about 1.6 million barrels per day, making it the largest supplier. Despite Trump's assertions, analysts suggest that an immediate halt to Russian oil imports is unrealistic. Current contracts for oil procurement are typically arranged weeks in advance, and existing agreements will continue until at least the end of November.

While India is exploring ways to diversify its energy sources, the transition away from Russian crude would require significant adjustments. The economic rationale for continuing to purchase Russian oil remains strong, as it offers competitive pricing and high distillate yields, which are crucial for India's refining capabilities. Analysts estimate that shifting away from Russian oil could cost India an additional $3-5 billion annually due to increased import expenses.

India's oil imports from the US have been limited, with logistical and compatibility issues hindering a substantial increase. Current projections suggest that US imports could reach a maximum of 500,000 barrels per day, which is insufficient to replace Russian supplies. The Middle East is seen as a more viable alternative for sourcing oil, but it would still require a strategic mix of suppliers to meet India's needs.

Despite the ongoing diplomatic tensions, India maintains that its oil purchases comply with international regulations, as there are currently no sanctions against Russian crude imports. The US has not imposed restrictions on Russian oil purchases, and India continues to operate within the established price cap for such imports. As the global oil market remains volatile, the implications of any significant changes in India's sourcing strategy could have far-reaching effects on crude prices and inflation worldwide.