Most Americans assume that if you commit a serious crime , you’ll likely face consequences. The reality is starkly different. Even for the most serious crime — murder — the national clearance rate hovers around 55% . That means if you kill someone, it’s essentially a coin flip whether you’ll ever face charges. For other violent crimes like robbery, the clearance rate is less than 30% — and this only considers crimes that are reported to police (many are not). By the time you get to property crimes, the odds of getting away with it are even higher. If you steal a car, break into someone’s home, or shoplift, the chances you’ll be arrested are vanishingly small.

Recent months have seen reformers claim that murder rates are at historic lows and violent crime is falling. Meanwhile, Pre

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