Russia's 'disposable-goods' economy gets busier but poorer, and sanctions could trigger a recession

Vladimir Putin’s wartime economy has been resilient in the face of Western sanctions triggered by his invasion of Ukraine, but it’s hitting a wall and U.S. pressure on the energy sector could cause a recession, according to experts.

Massive defense spending has propped up growth, kept factories humming, and pushed unemployment lower, while Moscow has relied on allies like China for goods no longer available from the West.

“But the country has exhausted its reserves of manufacturing capacity and manpower,” Alexandra Prokopenko, a fellow at the Carnegie Russia Eurasia Center and former Russian central bank advisor, wrote in Foreign Affairs on Monday.

“To produce substantially more equipment or recruit and train far more soldiers, Moscow would have to shift to a more comprehensive war