Hurricane Melissa, now a Category 4 storm, is expected to gain force as it threatens catastrophic damage to Jamaica and other Caribbean islands. Forecasters say Melissa will reach Category 5 intensity with winds surpassing 150 mph later in the coming days.

As the storm tracks northwest through the Caribbean Sea, it’s expected to bring damaging winds, heavy rainfall, life-threatening flash flooding, and risk of landslides to Jamaica on Oct. 26. The strongest winds will hit early in the week, though catastrophic conditions are likely to begin much earlier, the National Hurricane Center said.

A hurricane warning was in effect Oct. 26 for Jamaica, as the slow-moving storm brewed 110 miles off the coast of the country's capital. When the powerful hurricane makes its forecast landfall between late Oct. 27 and early Oct. 28, Melissa is expected to be "an upper-end Category 4 hurricane, which could be the strongest direct landfall for the island" since tropical storm records have been kept, the National Hurricane Center said.

When Hurricane Melissa makes landfall in Jamaica, "it'll be only the 5th major hurricane on record to strike the nation," said hurricane researcher Michael Ferragamo in a post on X on Oct. 25. With a forecast landfall speed of 150 mph, the storm "would easily surpass the island's strongest on record." Hurricane Gilbert made landfall as a high-end Category 3 hurricane in September 1988.

Hurricane Melissa is expected to make landfall near the Jamaican coast by Oct. 28 before moving across the island and over eastern Cuba.

It is likely to remain a major storm as it reaches Cuba by midweek, forecasters warned. Haiti, the Dominican Republic, parts of Cuba, the Bahamas, and the Turks and Caicos could see life-threatening flash flooding and the potential for landslides later in the week as the storm passes through the Caribbean, the National Hurricane Center said Oct. 26.

Hurricane Melissa path tracker

This forecast track shows the most likely path of the storm's center. It does not illustrate the full width of the storm or its impacts, and the center of the storm is likely to travel outside the cone up to 33% of the time.

Hurricane Melissa spaghetti models

Illustrations include an array of forecast tools and models, and not all are created equal. The hurricane center uses only the top four or five highest-performing models to help make its forecasts.

Impacts from Melissa

Forecasters expect Jamaica to be hit by hurricane conditions on Oct. 26 or Oct. 27. Rain is expected into Oct. 28, with total rainfall of 15 to 30 inches expected — but a maximum of 40 inches is possible — for Jamaica and for portions of southern Hispaniola.

Multiple days of heavy rain and damaging winds will contribute to catastrophic and life-threatening flash flooding and landslides across portions of southern Hispaniola and Jamaica, the hurricane center said. Also expected: power and communications outages, and extensive infrastructural damage. A life-threatening storm surge is also likely along portions of the southern coast early next week, the center said.

A hurricane watch and tropical storm warning were in effect Sunday afternoon, Oct. 26, for the southwestern peninsula of Haiti from the border with the Dominican Republic to Port-Au-Prince. Hurricane watches are also in effect for the Cuban provinces of Granma, Santiago de Cuba, Guantanamo, and Holguin, the hurricane center said.

This article originally appeared on USA TODAY: Hurricane Melissa strengthens to Category 4 storm as it nears Jamaica. See path.

Reporting by Mike Snider and Karissa Waddick, USA TODAY / USA TODAY

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