OTTAWA — With just one week remaining before the government presents its first budget, tensions are rising among the Liberal Party and opposition parties. Each side is attempting to shift blame in anticipation of a potential snap election. The minority Liberals hold 169 seats, three short of a majority, meaning they need support from at least three opposition MPs to pass the budget and avoid a confidence vote.

Government House Leader Steven MacKinnon warned in recent interviews that the government currently lacks sufficient votes to pass the federal budget. "Of course, they don’t have the numbers yet," said Lori Turnbull, a professor at Dalhousie University. "Surely, they can’t expect the opposition parties to say they’re going to support (the budget) when they haven’t seen it."

Finance Minister François-Philippe Champagne is set to table the budget on November 4. MPs will debate a Conservative amendment and a Bloc Québécois subamendment before the Remembrance Day break. The first confidence vote could occur as early as mid-November when MPs return to Ottawa.

John Fragos, a spokesman for Champagne, stated, "Budget 2025 is about meeting this hinge moment, building a stronger economy where everyone has a chance to get ahead, and empowering Canadians with new opportunities, better careers, and a lower cost of living." He emphasized that there is no desire for political games during this critical time.

Conservative Leader Pierre Poilievre has not confirmed whether his party would support a budget that could lead to an early election. "Our message to the Liberals is that we want an affordable budget for an affordable Canada," he said at a press conference. He urged the government to reduce spending to help lower the cost of living for Canadians. Poilievre also refrained from stating whether he and his 143 MPs would be present during the budget vote.

The Bloc Québécois, led by Yves-François Blanchet, has already indicated it will not support the budget unless its six "non-negotiable" demands are met, including increased Old Age Security transfers for seniors aged 65-74. Blanchet remarked, "It is the exclusive responsibility of the Liberals to find someone with whom (they can) reach an agreement in order to have their budget eventually adopted."

The NDP, with seven MPs, and Green Party Leader Elizabeth May are also potential partners for the Liberals. May stated she would not support a budget that includes fossil fuel subsidies, saying, "That’s my one condition. Otherwise, I haven’t read the budget yet, so I haven’t decided how I’m going to vote."

An NDP source noted that the party has not yet outlined specific demands and will not make a decision until the budget is presented. Observers suggest the NDP is unlikely to back a budget that includes austerity measures or cuts to public services.

Carney has met with leaders from all four parties, and MacKinnon and Champagne have been in discussions with party representatives. However, the NDP source described the current talks as "pro forma" rather than negotiations. Former Liberal minister Marc Miller acknowledged that the previous agreement with the NDP made things easier, but he noted that each vote was a negotiation with significant stakes.

May suggested that the government has options to avoid a fall, such as negotiating a new confidence agreement with an opposition party or delaying the budget vote to secure enough support. "We’re in a minority Parliament. There is no one, all-powerful player here. We have to work together. That’s a good thing for democracy."