Speaking from the sidelines of the UBS India Summit 2025, Tanvee Gupta Jain, Chief India Economist at UBS, said that talks on a possible India-US trade deal are gaining traction and could bring relief from high import tariffs.

“This is the most discussed topic, even during our conference,” Jain said. “Our base case is that the reciprocal tariff in India, including the current 50% penalty, gradually comes down to 15% by December 2025.” She added that the penalty itself could be withdrawn as early as November, which would help lift investor sentiment and remove one of the “biggest hindrances” for capital flows into India.

UBS expects India’s gross domestic product (GDP) growth to remain strong at 6.8% in the fiscal year 2025-26 (FY26), supported by domestic demand, policy easing, and a GST

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