COVID cases are growing in states in the darkest shade of purple, and likely growing in states in the next darkest shade.

By Joe Lombardi From Daily Voice

Families planning Thanksgiving trips may need to keep an eye not just on the weather, but on where COVID-19 is starting to climb again.

The Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC) said on Tuesday, Nov. 18, that infections are growing or likely growing in 19 states, declining or likely declining in four states, and not changing in 22 states. 

The trends come from a CDC modeling tool that tracks emergency department visits tied to COVID to estimate how quickly the virus is spreading in each state.

According to the latest estimates, infections are increasing or likely to increase in the following states:

  • Colorado
  • Indiana
  • Iowa
  • Kansas
  • Kentucky
  • Louisiana
  • Massachusetts
  • Michigan
  • Mississippi
  • Missouri
  • Nebraska
  • New Mexico
  • Oklahoma
  • Pennsylvania
  • South Carolina
  • South Dakota
  • Texas
  • Vermont
  • West Virginia

The growth estimates are based on a measure known as the effective reproductive number, or Rt, which reflects how many other people, on average, each infected person is passing the virus to. When Rt stays above one for long enough, infections tend to rise; when it falls below one, infections tend to slow.

The Thanksgiving timing comes as vaccination against COVID remains well below earlier levels. Only about 23 percent of American adults received a COVID-19 shot during the 2024-25 season, compared with about 47 percent who got a flu vaccine in that period. 

Uptake of the updated 2025 to 2026 COVID-19 vaccine remains in progress and has not reached the broader coverage seen in earlier years, even as the virus continues to circulate.

CDC now recommends a 2025 to 2026 COVID-19 vaccine for people ages 6 months and older using an individual-based decision-making approach that weighs personal risk. 

The updated monovalent vaccines are designed to better match currently circulating variants and are especially important for adults ages 65 and older, people at higher risk for severe disease, and those who have never received a COVID-19 vaccine.

Health officials say simple steps can help lower the odds of COVID-19 disrupting holiday plans. Keep gatherings on the smaller side when possible and talk with guests in advance about any recent illness or symptoms. When weather allows, consider celebrating outdoors, or improve airflow indoors by opening windows or using fans.

Staggering mealtimes to avoid crowding around the table, avoiding shared utensils where possible, and washing hands frequently can also cut risk. 

Public health guidance continues to urge people to stay home if they feel sick and to consider COVID-19 and flu vaccination ahead of gatherings, especially for those at higher risk of serious illness.

Check back to Daily Voice for updates.