One of the biggest internal debates among fans this time of year is whether you should actually be rooting for wins or losses down the stretch. Simply put: to tank or not to tank. Unfortunately for the Jets, this has basically turned into an annual tradition at this point. If the season ended today, the Jets would be slotted at 4th overall in the draft. Based on strength of schedule tiebreakers, they’d likely pick ahead of teams like the Titans, Raiders, and Giants if they finish with the same record, but behind teams like the Browns and Saints. So the real question becomes: how likely are the Jets to move up or down from that spot?

I looked at two main metrics for this: DAVE (from the old Football Outsiders crew) and ESPN’s FPI. DAVE stands for DVOA Adjusted for Variation Early. Think of

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