One source of good news — favored both by me and, apparently, venture capitalists — is what’s known as a “narrative violation.” A narrative violation occurs when everyone thinks one thing, but the actual evidence suggests the opposite.

And few narratives are more persistently violated than one common belief: “Violent crime is always going up.”

A 2023 survey from IPSOS of people in 30 countries found that 70 percent of respondents thought the world was becoming more violent and dangerous. Here in the US, majorities have told pollsters almost every year since the early 1990s that violent crime is going up. And other surveys indicate that many people around the world insist that life was better and often safer 50 years ago than it is today.

So, that’s the narrative. Here’s the violation: W

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