This is the week where perception and reality finally split. The last playoff rankings before Championship Weekend will show us which teams the committee actually trusts, and which ones only look alive because the standings haven't caught up yet.

Records will mislead you, resumes will confuse you, and the market will contradict both. Several teams have paths, others don't, and a few sit in the gray zone where the odds make no sense.

I break down the biggest hinge points on the board, the blind spots, the bias patterns and the teams still fooling on paper.

Texas is alive ... but only in headlines

No current odds to make the CFP

The fact that Texas isn't listed on the board is the market saying, "We don't need to price this because the path is effectively dead." The win over undefeated

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