Kansas City Chiefs quarterback Patrick Mahomes (15) rolls away from Houston Texans linebacker Henry To'oTo'o (39) during the fourth quarter of a 2025 AFC divisional round game at GEHA Field at Arrowhead Stadium in Kansas City, Missouri.

The Houston Texans (7-5) face the Kansas City Chiefs (6-6) in a pivotal matchup with AFC Wild Card ramifications. Kickoff Sunday from Arrowhead Stadium in Kansas City, Missouri, is set for 8:20 p.m. ET (NBC / Peacock). Let's analyze BetMGM Sportsbook's NFL odds around the Texans vs. Chiefs odds and make our expert NFL picks and predictions for the best bets.

The Texans upset the Indianapolis Colts Sunday in a 20-16 victory as 3-point road dogs. QB C.J. Stroud was 22-for-35 for 276 yards, no TDs and 1 INT. RB Nick Chubb and WR Nico Collins had rushing scores. DE Will Anderson Jr. has developed into an elite edge rusher. He didn't record a sack last week, which snapped a 6-game sack streak with 8.5 total in the process.

The Chiefs fell 31-28 to the Dallas Cowboys Thanksgiving afternoon, failing to cover as 3.5-point favorites. TE Travis Kelce hauled in 5 passes for 45 yards and a score. WR Rashee Rice had an 8-92-2 day. QB Patrick Mahomes went 23-for-34 for 261 yards, 4 TDs and 0 INTs while running for his life. He has been sacked 27 times this season, which is tied for seventh-most in the league, and it isn't getting any easier with 3 starting O-linemen likely out.

These teams met in last season's playoffs with KC coming away as 23-14 victors, failing to cover as 10-point home favorites. The Under 41.5 smashed in that one.

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Texans at Chiefs odds

Provided by BetMGM Sportsbook; access USA TODAY Sports Scores and Sports Betting Odds hub for a full list. Lines last updated at 6:32 a.m. ET.

  • Moneyline (ML): Texans +165 (bet $100 to win $165) | Chiefs -200 (bet $200 to win $100)
  • Against the spread (ATS): Texans +3.5 (-105) | Chiefs -3.5 (-115)
  • Over/Under (O/U): 41.5 (O: -110 | U: -110)

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SUNDAY NIGHT FOOTBALL: Best prop bets

Texans at Chiefs key injuries

Texans

  • CB Kamari Lassiter (foot) questionable
  • FS Jaylen Reed (forearm) out

Chiefs

  • OT Josh Simmons (wrist) out
  • OG Trey Smith (ankle) doubtful
  • OT Jawaan Taylor (triceps, knee) doubtful

Texans at Chiefs picks and predictions

Prediction

Chiefs 20, Texans 17

Moneyline

There's no play here. The Texans (+165) are tempting, but this game will be played in sub-freezing temperatures. I don't like that outlook for a road dome team. The Chiefs have to win this game to stay in the hunt, and Mahomes' track record says they'll get it done. They're just far too expensive to trust, though.

Head over to FanDuel and take WILL ANDERSON TO RECORD A SACK (-106) or stick with BetMGM's PATRICK MAHOMES OVER 24.5 RUSHING YARDS (+100). Mahomes has hit this in 2 straight and in 8 of 12 games this season.

Against the spread

Take the TEXANS +3.5 (-105). The hook is the key for me here. KC has lost 3 of 4 and hasn't covered once in that stretch. The offensive line is a huge problem, and Anderson's rushing ability will exploit it.

Over/Under

KC is 3-7 O/U in its last 10, and Houston is 3-6-1.

The temps are going to be in the low-20s, and this pegs to be an ugly, smashmouth game.

Go UNDER 41.5 (-110).

For more sports betting picks and tips, check out SportsbookWire.com and BetFTW.

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This article originally appeared on Sportsbook Wire: Houston Texans at Kansas City Chiefs odds, picks and predictions

Reporting by Ryan Dodson, Sportsbook Wire / Sportsbook Wire

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