Bitwise CIO Matt Hougan says the crypto market is anchored to the wrong mental model. Speaking on the Empire podcast recorded 5 December and released on 8 December, he argued that the traditional “four-year Bitcoin cycle” has lost its explanatory power – and that 2026, which many expect to be a brutal post-halving down year, is far more likely to be an “up year” driven by institutional flows and regulatory tailwinds.

“2026 will not be a bad year, Jason,” Hougan told host Jason Yanowitz. “I think 2026 will be a good year […] I just don’t understand the logical reason why [the four-year cycle] would repeat again. It’s not like built into a mechanical clock. It was driven by specific factors and those factors no longer exist, so it won’t keep happening.”

He acknowledged that recent price ac

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