The end of a 28-day pause in small boat crossings has once again exposed the fragility of the migration debate.

For almost a month, no migrants were recorded arriving in the UK by small boat - the longest uninterrupted lull since 2018.

Quietly, ministers welcomed the timing. Public pressure over Channel crossings has remained intense, and the absence of arrivals offered a rare moment of political breathing space.

But Saturday's new crossings have brought that pause to an abrupt end, reinforcing a long-running problem for successive governments: migration numbers are volatile, weather-dependent, and politically unforgiving.

December has always been one of the quietest months for Channel crossings. Cold temperatures, poor visibility and rough seas make the journey significantly more

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