Week 1 of the 2025 NFL season was a surprise across four days of action. Three underdogs won outright and another four beat the spread.
The Los Angeles Chargers and Buffalo Bills were both underdogs in Week 1 and, thanks to stellar play from their respective quarterbacks, wrapped up the first week of the season 1-0. Las Vegas had the biggest disparity between game line and final score; at +2.5, the Raiders took home a 20-13 win over New England.
AFC underdogs across the league beat the spread on Sunday. The New York Jets, Tennessee Titans and Cleveland Browns all kept things much closer than anticipated in losses in the first full slate. On opening night, the Dallas Cowboys kept pace with the defending champion Philadelphia Eagles.
With the first week of information, lines could overcorrect in Week 2 and provide some opportunities with underdogs across the slate.
It's still September, though, a time rife with results that will look foolish months from now. Let's not forget that in Week 2 last season, the AFC North champion Ravens lost to a Raiders team that finished 4-13.
More underdogs could surprise this week. Here are our four underdog picks this week:
NFL Week 2 picks against the spread
All odds listed are provided by BetMGM Sportsbook as of Wednesday. Access USA TODAY Sports Scores and Sports Betting Odds hub for a complete list.
Chicago Bears (+6) at Detroit Lions
The Bears opened the season with a rough second-half collapse at home against the Vikings in primetime. Not the best way for the Ben Johnson regime to begin, but you'd expect some growing pains at the start of the year.
This week, Chicago heads on the road to take on Johnson's former team. Detroit was thoroughly outplayed by the Green Bay Packers in the opener as they adjust to life without Johnson and longtime defensive coordinator Aaron Glenn, now in New York as the head coach of the Jets.
Lions quarterback Jared Goff is winless without Johnson or Sean McVay as his offensive play-caller. Johnson knows this Lions roster well and Bears defensive coordinator Dennis Allen schemed up the best defense by expected points added (EPA) per pass in the NFL in Week 1.
The Lions may win based on the talent advantage they have across the roster. But this feels like a big line considering how both teams looked in Week 1. This could easily be a 24-21 ball game when the clock hits 0:00 in the fourth quarter.
Jacksonville Jaguars (+3.5) at Cincinnati Bengals
Cincinnati had seven net yards in the second half of their Week 1 game against the Browns and still won. That's the fewest yards in a second half by a winning team in at least the last 25 years. If not for a missed field goal with 2:26 to go in the game, the Bengals may have left Cleveland 0-1.
The Jaguars defense doesn't have Myles Garrett but they do have a solid pass-rushing group led by Josh Hines-Allen and Travon Walker. Their offense was especially strong on the ground in the first game under coach Liam Coen, something they could capitalize on against the Bengals defense.
Like the Bears-Lions matchup, the favorite may ultimately win the game. Betting against Joe Burrow and Cincinnati's offense isn't for the faint of heart. But considering their September troubles historically under Zac Taylor, it wouldn't be a surprise to see the Jaguars keep this one close enough to beat the spread.
New Orleans Saints (+4.5) vs. San Francisco 49ers
Unlike the previous two picks, this one involves a home underdog who lost in Week 1 against a 1-0 team. New Orleans played better than expected in Week 1 despite losing to the Cardinals 20-13 and the 49ers needed the defense to play at an incredible level to eke out a win in Seattle.
San Francisco will be without tight end George Kittle starting this week and had to sign Kendrick Bourne off the street to field enough wide receivers. They just jettisoned their disappointing kicker and replaced him with the fourth-most accurate kicker in NFL history.
New Orleans' defensive coordinator Brandon Staley spent last season with San Francisco as assistant head coach. That familiarity should come in handy at home. The two defenses could make this a low-scoring battle that comes down to a late field goal, giving one side a 16-13 win.
Cleveland Browns (+11.5) at Baltimore Ravens
Now, this one could be laughable come Sunday evening. But Cleveland just shut down one of the most talented offenses in the NFL for a half last week. The Browns beat the Ravens in Week 8 last season in a down year for the defense. Granted, Baltimore ran over them in Week 18 but the Browns were well out of contention by then and on to their fourth starting quarterback of the year.
Baltimore looked like one of the best teams in the NFL in primetime against the Bills in a narrow loss to open the year. The Browns' unit may be more of a challenge in Week 2 against Garrett and a secondary that played very well in the second half.
A Browns win outright is tough on the road but this line feels far too big considering how Cleveland's defense played, the Browns' track record against the Ravens in games that matter and Baltimore's early-season struggles. A 31-20 Baltimore win seems completely plausible.
This article originally appeared on USA TODAY: NFL Week 2 picks, best upset bets: Top teams to bet against the spread
Reporting by Ayrton Ostly, USA TODAY / USA TODAY
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