New estimate projects 50% less Alaska state revenue from proposed Willow oil project

A report published by the Alaska Department of Revenue last month says the state treasury will benefit far less from the new Willow oil project than previously estimated.

According to the department’s new estimate, Alaska’s state treasury will net $2.6 billion from the development between 2029, when Willow is expected to begin producing oil, and 2053, the end of its expected productive life.

That’s down 50% from $5.2 billion expected in a 2024 estimate, and from $6.3 billion forecast in a 2023 estimate. Fairbanks writer Dermot Cole first noted the decline on his website.

Under all three estimates, Willow’s operator, ConocoPhillips, would receive more in state-paid tax credits than it generates the state in tax revenue.

In Alaska’s current oil tax system, oilfield developers also receiv