Don’t be fooled. With the official start of autumn on Monday, forecasters say this fall could feel warmer than normal — despite what the culturally popular “Old Farmer’s Almanac” has said.

The almanac is known for making predictions based on secret formulas in the months leading up to a new season. This year, it predicted a cooler and drier October.

But the National Weather Service paints a different picture. The agency’s parent organization, the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, said the New York region has a 40 to 50% chance of a warmer-than-average fall. Still, meteorologists say seasonal forecasts are hard to get right.

NWS meteorologist Bryan Ramsey says long-term weather models are not so easy to pin down.

“ It's much more difficult to predict climate swings versus

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