CNN data analyst Harry Enten on October 31, 2025

The upcoming gubernatorial elections in New Jersey and Virginia, along with next week's mayoral election in New York City, could be viewed as a reliable bellwether for how next year's midterm elections will go, according to CNN data analyst Harry Enten.

In a Friday segment on CNN's "OutFront," Enten told guest host Erica Hill that "Donald Trump can't be too happy" with the latest polling in those three races. Even though New Jersey's gubernatorial race is the closest of the three, Trump-endorsed Republican Jack Ciattarelli is still anywhere from six to eight points behind Democratic candidate Mikie Sherrill.

Republicans have an even smaller chance of keeping control of the governor's mansion in Virginia, as Republican Lieutenant Governor Winsome Earle-Sears is trailing Democrat Abigail Spanberger by 14 points according to a recent YouGov poll. And Democrat Zohran Mamdani is poised for a clear victory over former New York Governor Andrew Cuomo (who is running as an independent) and Republican Curtis Sliwa. An Emerson College poll shows Mamdani ahead of Cuomo — his closest challenger — by roughly 25 percentage points.

"At this point in time, to me, it seems like the Democrats are most likely going to sweep all three of those races," Enten said. "And that's in part because of Donald Trump."

Enten went on to observe that there have only been five instances in the past 90 years where Democrats have swept all three off-year elections, with the latest instance happening in 2017. The other four times were in 1989, 1961, 1957 and 1953. However, Enten said that Democrats have reason to be hopeful if they repeat the feat next week.

"The five times that I mentioned that the Democrats swept all three of those races, each and every single time, the following year, they won a majority in the U.S. House of Representatives," he said. "So if Democrats sweep on Tuesday, in my opinion, it's a very good sign looking forward to 2026 in taking back that majority from the Republicans."

Watch the segment below:

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