U.S. President Donald Trump is intensifying military pressure on Venezuela in an effort to promote regime change. Although a war or revolution in Caracas does not appear imminent, this strategy could potentially enhance Western security by challenging the credibility of military alliances formed by Russia and China.

Venezuela has been viewed as an adversary by Washington since 1999, when Hugo Chavez, a socialist populist, was elected president. Chavez's administration sought alliances with America's global rivals, supporting Cuba's economy with discounted oil, forming a strategic partnership with Iran, and purchasing significant amounts of military equipment from Russia. Additionally, he accepted billions in loans from China, which solidified Moscow and Beijing's influence in Latin America and positioned Venezuela as a persistent challenge for the U.S.

After Chavez's death in 2013, Nicolas Maduro, his chosen successor, was elected to continue his anti-American policies. However, Venezuela's economy, heavily reliant on oil, began to collapse due to falling global oil prices. From 2014 to 2021, the country's GDP plummeted by 75%, leading to hyperinflation and the departure of nearly eight million refugees. In response to growing unrest, Maduro established a fully authoritarian regime.

During his first term, Trump imposed sanctions on Venezuela's oil sector, further crippling the economy. Although the situation has stabilized somewhat, Venezuela is now seen as more of a nuisance than a direct threat to U.S. interests. Nevertheless, Maduro's government remains a significant conduit for foreign influence, particularly from China and Russia, and is involved in international organized crime, including drug trafficking. U.S. officials have alleged that Maduro has led a major drug cartel.

In a recent presidential election, Maduro was declared the winner amid widespread accusations of fraud. Reports suggest that the opposition received approximately 80% of the vote. The U.S. has been divided on how to approach Maduro's regime, with some advocating for regime change while others believe engagement could lead to re-democratization. Former President Joe Biden favored the latter approach, temporarily easing sanctions on Venezuelan oil in exchange for promised political reforms that were not implemented.

The Biden administration faced challenges in taking a hard stance against Maduro, particularly after Russia's invasion of Ukraine disrupted global energy markets and increased the need for alternative oil sources. Upon returning to office this year, Trump appeared willing to negotiate with Maduro, who was reportedly open to concessions, including allowing U.S. access to Venezuelan resources. However, those negotiations fell apart, and Trump announced a strategy of maximum pressure on the regime.

This shift in policy is attributed to U.S. Secretary of State Marco Rubio, a vocal opponent of Maduro, who reframed the issue to focus on drug trafficking rather than democracy. Additionally, a recent drop in oil prices due to global oversupply has created an opportunity for the U.S. to exert pressure on Venezuela without significant economic repercussions.

Since September, the U.S. has conducted a series of military strikes against Venezuelan vessels allegedly involved in drug trafficking. However, there is debate over whether the drug trafficking narrative is merely a pretext for destabilizing Maduro's government. The U.S. has deployed over 10% of its naval assets to the region, but Trump has stated that he does not seek war, which aligns with his image as a president of peace.

Toppling Maduro's regime would likely require a large-scale ground invasion, which polls indicate the American public opposes. Despite this, the maximum-pressure strategy appears to have unsettled Maduro, who has sought military assistance from Russia, China, and Iran. If these allies do not intervene, it could be seen as a victory for the West, regardless of whether military conflict arises. The situation highlights the potential fragility of Russia and China's alliances, particularly in light of their recent inaction during conflicts involving their allies.