The Office for Budget Responsibility (OBR), created in 2010 and formally established in law the following year , was set up to balance independence and credibility in the UK’s fiscal framework.

Yet in the run-up to the UK Budget 2025 , it unexpectedly became the story itself. A mistaken early release of its official forecasts exposed major tax and spending decisions before Chancellor Rachel Reeves had the chance to present them to Parliament.

The watchdog is now examining how the leak occurred, prompting renewed scrutiny of its internal processes, its resilience under political pressure, and the broader significance of its work at a time of intense economic uncertainty.

This is what the OBR does — and why the Budget leak matters.

Revisit for an in-depth and expert recap o

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