Tampa Bay Buccaneers at Houston Texans best prop bets for Monday Night Football

Houston Texans running back Nick Chubb (21) istackled by the LA Rams during the fourth quarter at SoFi Stadium in Inglewood, California.

The Tampa Bay Buccaneers (1-0) and the Houston Texans (0-1) meet in the first game of a Monday Night Football doubleheader at NRG Stadium in Houston, Texas. Kickoff is scheduled for 7 p.m. ET (ABC). Let's analyze BetMGM Sportsbook's Buccaneers vs. Texans odds and tab the 5 best prop bets to win among SportsbookWire's expert NFL picks and predictions for Week 2.

The Buccaneers opened the season with a 23-20 win over the Atlanta Falcons, covering as 1-point road favorites as the Under (47.5) cashed. QB Baker Mayfield carried the offense, tossing 3 touchdown passes, 2 of them to rookie wideout Emeka Egbuka. Mayfield even led Tampa Bay in rushing, with 39 yards on the ground.

The Texans dropped their season opener 14-9 to the LA Rams, failing to cover as 3-point road underdogs as the Under (43.5) cashed. Houston couldn’t find the end zone, settling for just 3 field goals. QB C.J. Stroud was 19-for-27 for 188 yards. Veteran running back Nick Chubb led the ground game, carrying 13 times for 60 yards.

Play our free daily Pick’em Challenge and win! Play now!

Buccaneers at Texans prop bets

Odds provided by BetMGM Sportsbook; access USA TODAY Sports Scores and Sports Betting Odds hub for a full list. Lines last updated at 9:40 a.m. ET.

Texans RB Nick Chubb UNDER 50.5 RUSHING YARDS (-125)

The Buccaneers’ defensive front showed its muscle in Week 1, shutting down Atlanta’s talented backfield tandem of Bijan Robinson and Tyler Allgeier, holding them to just 48 yards on 22 carries. That same formula could spell trouble for Houston, whose ground game has been shaky for years. Old man Chubb managed 60 yards on 13 carries against the Rams but we've seen his decline after multiple injuries in Cleveland. He averaged just 3.3 yards per carry across 8 games and topped 50 yards only twice. At 28, Chubb doesn’t seem to have the same burst, and it wouldn’t be surprising to see Houston begin mixing in younger options like rookie Woody Marks to add energy. Against Tampa Bay’s defense, the Texans will likely have to rely more on Stroud’s arm than the run game.

Buccaneers WR Mike Evans OVER 5.5 RECEPTIONS (+100)

Evans is as steady as they come—1,000-yard seasons every year and double-digit touchdowns in 4 of his last 5 seasons. He’s building a Hall of Fame résumé, and now bettors are getting his receptions line at plus odds, which feels like a gift.

Even in what was considered a “down” Week 1, Evans still pulled in 5 catches for 51 yards. He went over this receptions mark in 5 of his last 7 games last season, playoffs included. With WRs Chris Godwin and Jalen McMillan sidelined, Evans’ role only grows. Last week, he was second on the team in route participation at 83.8%, behind only rookie Egbuka, meaning he’s still heavily involved in the passing attack.

The Buccaneers come in as slight road underdogs, which could force Mayfield to throw more often, especially if Houston’s defense slows down the run. Whether in catch-up mode or simply leaning pass-heavy, Evans should be a focal point—and I like him to cash this number again.

BUCCANEERS AT TEXANS: Odds, picks and predictions

Texans K Ka'imi Fairburn OVER 1.5 FIELD GOALS (-130)

Fairbairn has been one of the most reliable kickers in the NFL for years, and Houston continues to lean on his consistency. In Week 1, he was basically Houston’s entire offense, knocking down all 3 of his field goal tries for all 9 of their points. That’s just what he does—he’s cleared this prop in 8 of his last 10 games going back to last season, playoffs included.

The matchup makes me like it even more. Tampa’s defense is solid, but they’re a bend-don’t-break unit, which means drives stall and kickers eat. Four of the last 5 kickers against them have cashed this exact number. Fairbairn is one of the steadiest legs in the league with an 87% career conversion rate, so I trust him to do his part.

Bottom line: The Texans might not finish every drive with a touchdown, but I’m confident Fairbairn will get the chances to hit this Over.

Buccaneers WR Sterling Shepard OVER 19.5 RECEIVING YARDS (-125)

Shepard isn’t the player he used to be, and nobody’s confusing him for a game-breaking wideout anymore. But in this spot, I think he’s worth a look. With Godwin and McMillan out, Shepard’s role gets a bump, and he already showed it in Week 1 with 6 targets, 3 catches, and 39 yards.

If you dig into the usage, he ran a route on 70% of Mayfield’s dropbacks—fourth-highest on the team. That tells me he’s firmly locked into 3-WR sets. Since joining the Bucs, he’s cleared 19.5 receiving yards in 7 of 14 games where he actually played meaningful snaps. That’s about a coin flip, but when you add the volume bump from injuries and Tampa being slight road dogs (meaning Baker probably throws more), I like the chances.

The number’s low enough that Shepard doesn’t need much to hit it. A couple of short grabs early, maybe one decent chunk play, and he’s over. I’ll take the Over on 19.5 receiving yards Monday night.

Texans WR Nico Collins ANYTIME TOUCHDOWN (+180)

The Texans can’t afford another quiet game from Collins. Three catches for 25 yards in the opener just won’t cut it for their No. 1 option. Collins has proven he can be a difference-maker, with 15 TDs over the past 2 seasons despite missing time.

Given Houston’s offensive line struggles, Stroud will likely look for quick throws to Collins to neutralize Tampa Bay’s pass rush. The matchup favors him: the Buccaneers gave up 27 passing touchdowns last season and ranked outside the top 20 in that category. Just last week, Michael Penix Jr. and Atlanta’s average passing attack lit them up for 298 yards.

If the Texans want to avoid another sluggish showing, Collins needs to be a focal point. Expect Stroud to feed him early and often, because when that connection is rolling, Houston’s offense looks completely different.

WIN YOUR FANTASY FOOTBALL LEAGUE! The Huddle has been turning players like you into winners for over 25 years. This season, it's your turn. Custom fantasy football rankings, sleepers and tools are just a click away. Subscribe now!

For more sports betting picks and tips, check out SportsbookWire.com and BetFTW.

Follow SportsbookWire on Twitter/X and like us on Facebook.

Access more NFL coverage:

This article originally appeared on Sportsbook Wire: Tampa Bay Buccaneers at Houston Texans best prop bets for Monday Night Football

Reporting by Drew Phelps, Sportsbook Wire / Sportsbook Wire

USA TODAY Network via Reuters Connect