Oregon Ducks head coach Dan Lanning on the sideline against the Northwestern Wildcats during the first half at Northwestern Medicine Field at Martin Stadium in Evanston, Illinois.

The Oregon State Beavers (0-3) and the No. 5 Oregon Ducks (3-0) meet Saturday at Autzen Stadium in Eugene, Oregon. Kickoff is scheduled for 3 p.m. ET (Big Ten Network). Let's analyze BetMGM Sportsbook's NCAA football odds around the Oregon State vs. Oregon odds and make our expert college football picks and predictions for the best bets.

Oregon State’s struggles continued Sept. 13 as it dropped to 0-3 after a 45-14 loss to the No. 16 Texas Tech Red Raiders. The Beavers failed to cover as 24-point road underdogs as the Under (61.5) cashed. The offense couldn’t establish the ground game, as RB Anthony Hankerson managed just 12 yards on 11 carries. QB Maalik Murphy was up and down, tossing 2 TDs but also 2 INTs. The defense was the bigger issue, giving up 599 total yards and now allowing an average of 38.3 points per game this season.

Oregon stayed perfect with a 34-14 win over the Northwestern Wildcats in its Big Ten opener, though the Ducks failed to cover as -26.5 road favorites. The Under (50.5) also cashed. RB Dierre Hill Jr. stole the show, averaging 18.8 yards per carry and finishing with 94 yards and a TD. QB Dante Moore completed 16 of 20 passes for 178 yards and a score. The Ducks defense has been dominant, holding opponents to just 10 points per game this season.

Oregon dominated the last matchup Sept. 14, 2024, rolling past Oregon State 49-14 in Corvallis. The Ducks easily covered as 18.5-point road favorites, while the Over (49) also hit. Oregon has controlled this rivalry, winning 7 of the last 10 meetings.

– Rankings: US LBM Coaches Poll, conducted by the American Football Coaches Association and USA TODAY Sports

Oregon State at Oregon odds

Provided by BetMGM Sportsbook; access USA TODAY Sports Scores and Sports Betting Odds hub for a full list. Lines last updated at 6:19 a.m. ET.

  • Moneyline (ML): Off the board
  • Against the spread (ATS): Oregon State +34.5 (-115) | Oregon -34.5 (-105)
  • Over/Under (O/U): 56.5 (O: -105 | U: -115)

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Oregon State at Oregon picks and predictions

Prediction

Oregon 49, Oregon State 13

Moneyline

PASS.

BetMGM is not even offering a moneyline on this game, which is why you should just take your wager to the spread.

Against the spread

BET OREGON -34.5 (-105).

Autzen is a buzzsaw, Oregon is 3-0 with top-10 efficiency on both sides, and Oregon State arrives 0-3 with mounting ATS issues. The number is big, but context matters: The Ducks have covered in 3 of the last 4 meetings, and 5 of the last 8. That’s not noise -- it’s a recurring talent and pace gap that shows up on the scoreboard.

Matchup-wise, I expect Oregon to dictate tempo early, build a multi-score cushion by halftime, and lean on depth after the break. Oregon State has struggled to keep games inside the number, posting a poor recent ATS run and fading on the road; asking that defense to withstand 4 quarters at Autzen is a tall order.

Market context supports it. Books are hanging −34.5/−35.5 with a mid-50s total -- an implied script where Oregon scores into the 40s or 50s and concedes little. With the Ducks’ edges in explosive plays and field position, the “backdoor” is the only true sweat; the path to a 5-TD margin is clean if the starters get 3 quarters.

Bottom line: I’m backing the superior roster, at home, against an opponent still searching for answers. OREGON −34.5 (-105) is my play.

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Over/Under

PASS.

I’m going to pass on the total here. Oregon’s offense is plenty explosive to clear the number on its own, but there’s also the chance it jumps out early and coasts, taking its foot off the gas. That kind of uncertainty makes it tough to get behind either side of the total. Instead, I’ll keep my attention on the spread, where I see a clearer edge.

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This article originally appeared on Sportsbook Wire: Oregon State Beavers at Oregon Ducks odds, picks and predictions

Reporting by Drew Phelps, Sportsbook Wire / Sportsbook Wire

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