Updated Saturday, 10 a.m. ET

The hostile upper winds and dry air that have been keeping Tropical Storm Gabrielle from organizing are slowly letting up, though the system hasn’t intensified yet. The storm is developing thunderstorms near the center, which is the first step. Gabrielle is still expected to reach hurricane strength over the weekend.

If the forecast is right, Gabrielle will be our second hurricane of the season. It's very unusual for a second hurricane to show up this late. In fact, it hasn't happened since 1994. But we can’t draw any conclusions from that about the rest of the season.

Gabrielle is heading in the general direction of Bermuda, but there's a strong consensus in the various computer model forecasts that it will miss the island to the east. The National Hurrican

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